the ongoing shift That the end of conflict between the United States and China on a other place, is Ray Dalio is not an improbable result. "Now, when people say that you should not invest in China or even suggest that the United States to retain payments for bonds, you owe Chinese people, then such things have serious consequences," he said recently in an Interview with the TV channel Fox.
above All, he fears the stability of the US dollar. "Since we are now our own worst enemy," says Dalio. In fact, the Dollar has fallen in recent months against many foreign currencies. In euros, for example, he is quoted today, 7.5 per cent worse than the year high in mid-March. Against the Japanese Yen, it has since lost around 5 percent against the British pound even nine percent. Only against the Chinese Renminbi, which also suffers from the trade war, the loss of about a percent lower. US Dollar / Euro (USD/EUR) 0,8492 EUR -0,0091 (-1,06%) OTC
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Dalio, head of the multibillion-dollar hedge Fund company Bridgewater Associates, fears, that this development could continue, if the United States will worsen their relations with China. Already, the Dollar no longer has the global importance of him a few years ago condition. Yale Professor Stephen Roach, for example, had least of all expects that the world's currency reserves are only a little under 60 percent from the Dollars. The turn of the Millennium there were just over 70 percent.
"This is a Trend that could resume in the next few years speed," he wrote in a column for the financial news Agency Bloomberg, "particularly because the United States lead the Trend toward De-globalization and de-coupling."
today, more and more countries are turning away from the Dollar. Iran is about moved to 2018 in Protest against the sanctions of the USA on international invoices from dollars to euros. Russia already tried that since 2013, its international payments more and more often in other currencies to be settled. Here, too, the Motivation plays a role, in order for sanctions to deal because of the Crimean occupation and of the Eastern Ukraine war. But also China and even the EU are turning away more and more of the former reserve currency.
What is USAThe Dollar Index, a Barometer that the currency weighted against a basket of major global currencies, you need to do recently fell to the lowest level since the summer of 2018. "For me, the stability of our currency concern the most," says Dalio and explains what gives him concern: "We can't continue to make debt and printing money, rather than to working productively and for a long time maintained."
Instead, the US would have to take to work "together in order to be more productive, more money than we spend to stabilize our currency and to provide a regular budget balance on the legs. Otherwise, we will fall.“
Yale-Professor Roach sees the situation is critical. "Of course argue that a weaker Dollar increases our ability to compete could be," he says. Then exports would be cheaper and imports more expensive, which should make U.S. products on the world market, more and more popular. "But that only lasts for a while. No world power has ever devalued their currency, and remained prosperous.“
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the following Date Of Update: 27 July 2020, 11:26
