Coronavirus : the return of the economy to normal not expected before mid-2022 - Point

The pandemic of sars coronavirus has very negative consequences on the global economy. France is not spared. According to an estimate published Tuesday by the B

Coronavirus : the return of the economy to normal not expected before mid-2022 - Point

The pandemic of sars coronavirus has very negative consequences on the global economy. France is not spared. According to an estimate published Tuesday by the Bank of France, the national economy is expected to dip about 10 % this year, despite a recovery in the "progressive" activity from the third quarter. The organization estimates that the GDP will not return to its pre-crisis level before mid-2022. The government anticipated a recession of 11 % this year.

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After the "shock, very strong," caused by the containment, with in particular a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) estimated at 15 % in the second quarter, the economy is expected to rebound by 7 % in 2021, and then increase by another 4 % in 2022, provides for the French central bank. "This strong rebound in apparent would not regain the activity level of the end of 2019 prior to mid-2022 ", emphasises, however, the Bank of France. This scenario is based on a movement of the Covid-19 persistent, but under control, and an economy that adapts to the constraints of sanitary ware.

The household savings rate estimated at more than 22 %

According to the central bank, its forecasts remain dependent on numerous uncertainties, and the "balance" between savings and consumption will be " essential to the pace of the recovery ". It is " likely that the rise in expected unemployment, and the overall context of high uncertainty continue to weigh on purchasing behaviour ", the judge does it. It provides as well as the household saving rate is over 22 % this year and that the consumption declines of 9.3 %. With margins weakened and a activity slows down, companies reduce their side of 23.3% on their investment.

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These problems are going to " cause a significant reduction of the employment ", but a bit shifted in time as the government reduces the device's massive part-time unemployment, put in place as early as the month of march. Thus, the unemployment rate would be over 10 % by the end of 2020, and would increase until a higher peak at 11.5 % in mid-2021, a level "above the previous" historical, projected the Bank of France. And he would have to wait until 2022 to see it go back down to 9.7 %.

Overall, if the total income of households will decrease due to these economic difficulties, what are the State and the public administrations that will take on the bulk of the shock of the crisis, points to the BdF. In terms of the level of price, it anticipates a downward pressure, with an inflation, which could even become negative at the end of the year 2020, mainly due to energy prices, and then remain below 1 % until the end of 2022.

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Updated Date: 09 June 2020, 03:33

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