Column | The witness of macroeconomics

In the relay races, it does not matter only the speed, also the conditions in which he passes the witness. With macroeconomics it is the same. As the bullpen, t

Column | The witness of macroeconomics

In the relay races, it does not matter only the speed, also the conditions in which he passes the witness. With macroeconomics it is the same. As the bullpen, there are four quarters for which data are provided on growth. Yesterday we learned that the third of 2019 showed symptoms of fatigue that will determine, probably, the race for the final three months of the year. In appearance, the speed is as expected —the GDP grew by 0.4% between June and September, but the witness is delivered a little lower because the growth year-on-year since it is not the 2% forecast, but falls to 1.9%.

The desfonde is widespread, but most pronounced for the external demand (contributing only one-tenth to advance, compared with 1.8% of domestic demand). There was also no special animation in private spending and, however, that there were in the audience, despite the fact that budgetary constraints were important, and what will be more next year.

The team will arrive, if at all, to the goal, and will be by to see if finally the year it closed below the 2% that seems to be psychological barrier. What does appear is that the sprinters of 2020 will be somewhat slower, and next year GDP will be around half a percentage point lower (1.5 per cent). It will converge with the greater part of combined europe in an economic activity somewhat more anemic and will be much more complicated to generate employment, although it is expected to continue creating. ç

All of this happens with a few levels of reduced prices. The CPI rose yesterday to 0.8% (after 0.4% in November), but the rise is associated with the rise of fuel because the underlying components of consumption are still sleepy. Inflation remains lost and one of the big unknowns of 2020 is if it will find. To do this follow paid the monetary policy of many central banks.

Fear of the global recession

with Respect to the external conditions, no longer fear sweeps extraordinary from the outside by the road because it has been dissipated, to a large extent, the fear of a global recession. However, in 2020 there will still be downside risks. The united states will hold elections in November, but all year seems to be paid to a political mess considerable, as is usual in these years, will have consequences in the outside. In the financial field, it will be appreciated to a certain stress in the debt markets, a pot in which pressure valve there are many hands touching. And, above all, the next year will be a lot of movement strategic.

Among other issues, it's going to be a lot of movement in trade negotiation in the next year. It will decide the new agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom, and there will be numerous ramifications and externalities of what they finally realized (or dispose) the united States and China. It will be a year, therefore, to act politically with attention and agility in an economy like the Spanish can't afford to get out of the game, abotargada by internal problems that begin to continue forever.

Updated Date: 31 December 2019, 04:00

ELPAIS

ELPAIS

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