Why decrease the stock markets so strong?
the main reason is the large uncertainty because nobody can predict how the Coronavirus developed. "It's hard to say whether the worst is in may to be over, and when life is back to normal," says ZKB-share strategist Claude Zehnder. The crash is so intense, because it went uphill with the rates steadily in recent years. Thus, the height of fall is greater.
the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia to be Added. "In contrast to the financial and real estate crisis of 2008, we will experience an anxiety crisis – a panic that spreads through the night. This also explains the speed of the sell-out," says Credit Suisse chief Investment officer for Switzerland, Burkhard Varnholt. In mid-February, the SMI was still at 11’270 points, currently there are 8560 counter.
How far can it go down?
Since the highs of the SMI has lost around a quarter of its value, for a large part of in the past few days. "This suggests that we are probably near the low point," says Varnholt. Also ZKB strategist Zehnder expected in the foreseeable future any drastic price drops more. "I believe that we are now arrived at the course level, where it is in free fall further and further down. We are likely to move with large fluctuations in sideways." During the week, the equity markets were down in part ten percent in just one day – the biggest slide in decades.
But the chief Investment officer of St. Galler Kantonalbank, Thomas Stucki, is not sure whether the worst is already over. "It can go further down. Much depends on the further development in the United States." The Virus should spread similar to those in China and Europe, not to exclude another crash.
when's the upswing?
To a sustainable recovery share not believe strategists at the moment. In order to stabilize the situation, to be a globally coordinated action is necessary to protect the health of the population, said Varnholt. In addition, policy measures are fiscal desirable to have the losses for the economy. Because of the recovery of the world economy according to an assessment by Varnholt-dependent, when it comes to the markets, again uphill. "The question now is whether it shaped the development of comes to a V-or we are heading for a multi-year down market," says Varnholt.
How you should behave as an investor?
Stucki of the cantonal Bank of St. Gallen advises investors to review their Portfolios. If the companies who have invested in you, the crisis is expected to be good to survive, there is no cause for concern. "If the investment strategy has been defined, is true, then the best is to have nothing. The daily fluctuations are so large – what is tomorrow, you have today, not in the grip of," says Stucki. As soon as investors panic, use this advice, however little. "Who's afraid of the need to go out of the market with the risk that it has sold on the low," says Stucki.
to take Credit-Suisse-investment expert Varnholt warns, now rash decisions. "Fear was never a good Advisor." Well before the crash, investors who have put their money in different asset classes to be protected.
What is the for my Pension/Pension means?
The downturn in the markets can not escape the Swiss pension funds. In the first two months of the year, their Performance was according to a survey by UBS, the average minus two per cent – after fees. The reason for the Minus is the poor performance of equities, while bonds were good. In the survey, the Performance flows of around 70 Swiss pension funds that have their investments at UBS, managing. In the previous year, they had recorded growth.
Smaller declines have taken place in the past few years. The last big losses, the pension funds recorded in the 2008 financial crisis, with a decline of almost 13 percent.Despite the short-term losses Zehnder exhorts to prudence. "In the case of pension assets, the long period of time. Time heals wounds, this is also true for the stock market," he says.
Created: 13.03.2020, 13:01 p.m.Updated Date: 13 March 2020, 21:02