In this moment is taking place between Brussels and London the fourth round of negotiations on the Brexit before the deadline of 30 June, the one before which both parties may still agree on a possible extension of the talks beyond December 31. David Collins, professor of international economic law at the City University of London and a specialist in international trade, considers that such an extension would require the United Kingdom, which was severely hit by the crisis of the coronavirus, to participate in the budget of the european recovery after the pandemic.
The Point : Why "Brexit" no agreement is preferable to the current status quo ?
David Collins, professor of international economic law at the City University of London and a specialist in international trade. © DR. David Collins : "Brexit" no agreement is preferable to the extension of the transition period beyond 31 December, which would be detrimental to the interests of the United Kingdom, unable now to exercise the slightest influence on the decisions taken in Brussels. Neither commissioner, nor members of the european parliament, or a judge of the european Court of justice. The country will still be subject to european regulations and will be required to participate in the budget without having his word to say. Extend is therefore totally inappropriate for a sovereign country.
The crisis of the Covid-19 does not encourage, does it not, to extend the transition period ?
Use the pandemic as a pretext for prolonging the period of transition is wrong. The continuation of payments to the EU budget would be disastrous for the United Kingdom in the years to come, given the historical levels of the debt caused by the virus. The United Kingdom has also been hard hit by the coronavirus, of which the invoice will be very high. Membership extended is also risky because of the massive stimulus packages put in place by the european Commission for the States of the South, many of which are on the brink of bankruptcy. There was an argument to stay in the EU or out of it-but the blurring of the current situation is untenable. It is necessary to close the case at 31 December.
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output brutal as you recommend, would it not be disastrous for foreign investment ? Nissan, for instance, could close its plant in Sunderland.
It is a sea serpent that has been used many times during the process of Brexit. The danger exists, but the international investors who are attracted by the Uk are not, by reason of the accession to the european Union, the single market or the customs union. They want to take advantage of the inherent strengths that are the customary law, the English language, the workforce is educated and trained, the deregulation of the labour market and the regulatory framework in encouraging the life of the business. In the eyes of foreign investors, a no deal will not affect the economic attractiveness to long-term in the United Kingdom.
what, in the event of a Brexit, without agreement, the transition rules of the world trade Organization would be beneficial ?
The Uk will be able to set unilaterally its own regulations more flexible, instead of having to apply the community rules some of which are detrimental to the economy. The british government may fix the duties on imports as he sees fit. The country will be free to quickly sign trade agreements with not only the EU, but other partners such as the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan, according to its own interests.
how the cost of a no deal will be paltry compared to that of the pandemic ?
The effect of the coronavirus, containment, and quarantine on the british economy and the recession will begin to overshadow, by far, a sudden reversal of the EU. I acknowledge that the scenario of no deal will lead to an economic contraction that will be only a small addition compared to the massive cost of the virus for one of the european countries most affected by the pandemic. Paradoxically, the anticipated economic slowdown in the course of the year and beyond may in fact mitigate some of the negative implications of "Brexit" without an agreement. The long lines of trucks announced in Dover are unlikely to see the day saw the fall of the international trade to a level not seen in decades. In addition, the coronavirus is going to change the business model of companies that, in the event of no deal, will have to adapt once and for all.
How do you see the evolution of the negotiations ?
obviously, the british government will not seek an extension, or even will not respond to a request of the EU going in the same direction, because it would constitute a violation of the promises made during the elections of December 12, 2019. It is clear that the EU seldom comes to an agreement before the latest steps. I bet on the conclusion of a minimum agreement covering tariffs and quotas on goods. In the absence of such agreement, Brexit hard is far preferable to the status quo.
