The PSC would win the elections again, with three more seats, while the current pro-independence majority would be on the verge of losing the absolute majority, in the midst of Catalangate and the subsequent revelations about espionage on members of the central government. This is one of the main conclusions of an Ipsos survey for La Vanguardia, carried out between May 9 and 12.

The survey places the PSC in the lead, with 36 seats, followed by Esquerra, which would maintain 33 in 2021, although with half a point less. Already further back, Junts would give up more than four points and seven seats. Only the advancement of the CUP – by one point and one seat, up to a total of 10 – would save the current absolute pro-independence majority, which would go from 74 deputies a year ago to only 68 now.

The rest of the electoral map would confirm the general rise of the PP, which would double its harvest of seats (from three to seven), although it would still be behind Vox. The ultras would improve their 2021 result by more than one and a half points and would add a deputy to their count, up to 12. The great victim of the advances of the PP and Vox would be Ciudadanos, who, however, could survive with three seats.

For their part, the commons would improve their estimated vote by almost one point and would add one more deputy, going from eight to nine. Finally, the PDECat would not have any possibility of obtaining representation today.

These electoral projections would fit with the assessments of the Government's management, which only approves one in three Catalans, compared to more than 40% who suspend it. For his part, the evaluation of Pere Aragonès as "a good president for Catalonia" would be 37% of those consulted.

The survey also inquires about the impact of Catalangate and support for the dialogue process with the central government. In this regard, 60% are committed to maintaining dialogue with the Executive of Pedro Sánchez, and although 53% do not believe espionage is justified, only 34% ask for Sánchez's dismissal.