While the two Scandinavian countries seem to be moving inexorably closer to the Atlantic Alliance, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday expressed his hostility to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

"We don't have a positive opinion", declared the president of this country which is part of NATO, explaining that he "does not want to see the same error repeated as the one committed during the accession of the Greece", which had been perceived as a threat to Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdogan also accused Stockholm and Helsinki of serving as "a hostel for PKK terrorists", the Kurdistan Workers' Party classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey.

This declaration casts a chill over a process supported so far by most NATO members and by the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, ready to welcome them "with open arms". Once the decision has been taken by a third country to join, the members of NATO must indeed unanimously agree to invite it to join them.

Faced with this hostility, the foreign ministers of the two Nordic countries wanted to calm things down and announced their intention of wanting to discuss with Turkey on Saturday in Berlin. Swedish Minister Ann Linde "will have the opportunity to discuss" with her Turkish counterpart during a planned informal meeting of NATO ministers, to which Sweden and Finland are invited, she said in a statement. at AFP. During a press conference given at the same time in Helsinki, the head of Finnish diplomacy Pekka Haavisto announced his intention to “continue the discussion” with the Turkish Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Washington backs membership

US President Joe Biden also spoke on Friday with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö for just over half an hour, the White House said.

The Finnish president said on Twitter that he had "explained Finland's next steps towards joining" the transatlantic defense organization and added that his country was "deeply grateful to the United States for their necessary support". White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki reiterated Thursday that Washington would support a membership application from Sweden and Finland.

Willingness to Swedish Membership

Ankara's statements follow the publication of an official Swedish report on Friday which estimates that Sweden's membership in NATO would reduce the risk of conflict in Northern Europe and while the decision of the Scandinavian country is expected in the next few days. Without formally expressing a recommendation, this 40-page strategic review highlights several advantages of seeing Sweden enter the alliance with neighboring Finland, which must formalize its candidacy on Sunday.

"Sweden's membership in NATO would raise the threshold (of triggering) of military conflicts and would thus have a deterrent effect in Northern Europe", concludes the study prepared in recent weeks by the government and the parties in Parliament. While Moscow threatens Finland and Sweden with “consequences” in the event of membership, the report considers an armed attack very unlikely, but recognizes that Russian “provocations” “cannot be excluded”.

A risk of Russian reprisals

"Our opinion is that we would not suffer a conventional military attack in response to a possible NATO candidacy," said Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde. The government, however, reiterates its current position that a military attack on the country cannot be ruled out, she said, alongside party representatives.

The report also concludes that as a non-NATO member, Sweden currently has no “guarantees” of assistance in the event of an attack. “In the current framework (…) there is no guarantee that Sweden will be helped if it were the target of a serious threat or attack,” he said. In a historic shift in its position, the ruling Social Democratic Party in Sweden must decide on Sunday whether it supports NATO membership.

Towards Finnish membership?

A green light from Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena's party would pave the way for a swift announcement of a Swedish candidacy. Finland is due to formalize its decision on Sunday, but its president and prime minister have already said they are in favor of joining the alliance “without delay” on Thursday.

Read alsoIs a rapprochement between NATO and Russia plausible?

Russia on Thursday threatened Finland with a “military-technical” response after its leaders announced their desire to join the alliance “without delay”. If membership materializes, Russia will be "obligated to take reciprocal military-technical and other measures to put an end to threats to its national security", promised the Russian Foreign Ministry, calling on Helsinki to "be aware of his responsibilities”.