MILAN - 2.30 pm. European stock exchanges are moving positively despite the US inflation data disappointing expectations. Prices rose 8.3% in April, above the expectations of analysts who were betting on an 8.1% rise but slowing from 8.5% in March. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3%, over the 0.2% that the market was waiting for
The most awaited data today is that of American prices, which will "command" with respect to the next moves by the Federal Reserve which has recently raised the cost of money by half a percentage point but, according to observers, in the event of marked inflation it will have to act with greater determination. Analysts expect US inflation to slow down slightly, but to always remain above 8%. Meanwhile, the ECB is receiving further signals that reinforce the hypothesis of an increase in rates as early as July.
Milan marks a progress of 1.41% after the publication of US inflation data. Good Pirelli, which yesterday published quarterly accounts with a 160% jump in profit to 110 million euros. Also noteworthy is the tear of Unicredit after the launch of the 1.6 billion buuback. The others were also positive: London rose by 0.84%, Frankfurt by 1.44% and Paris by 2.04%.
Meanwhile, data has come from China, where producer prices in April increased at the slowest pace in a year, leaving room for the introduction of further stimuli to support the weakened economy of the Dragon. China's Producer Price Index, which measures the cost of goods to the factory, rose 8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% the previous month, but over-expected by 7.7% . Consumer prices, on the other hand, unexpectedly rose to 2.1% per annum in April, more than 1.5% in March and the 1.8% expected by analysts. But as Jeffrey Halley, Oanda's senior market analyst, remarked on a morning note, "Mainland China equities took the lead today after inflation data still showed a very benevolent outlook." Compared to the "context of inflation in other parts of the world, China is in a much less bitter condition at the moment, and markets today are evaluating that this gives the Chinese government room to unleash some juicy stimulus."
The price lists also moved positively due to the decline in infections from Covid. Tokyo closed slightly up 0.18%. The Chinese stock exchanges are more convinced even though they are below the session highs: Shanghai 0.75%, Shenzhen 1.27%.
The attention remains high on Twitter, the social network object of the 44 billion offer by Elon Musk. Yesterday the entrepreneur stood out for having anticipated that he will remove the ban on former President Trump, once he is in the saddle, while today financial issues return to the agenda. According to Bloomberg, the Apollo fund is in talks to organize a 1 billion loan to the entrepreneur, coordinated by Morgan Stanley and with the possible participation of Sixth Street Partners. News that follows Musk's collection of over $ 7 billion from 'friendly' entrepreneurs such as Oracle's Larry Ellison.
Oil prices continue to rebound, with the WTI gaining nearly 3% above $ 102 a barrel after losing 9% in the previous two sessions as supply-side challenges re-emerged, with the EU re-emerging. works to gain support for Russian oil embargo as major producers have warned they may not be able to meet demand without further investment. Brent futures rose 3.38% to $ 105.35 a barrel. The markets are awaiting the announced embargo by the EU on Russian oil, even if the Hungarian vote is still missing, which is essential to have the necessary unanimity. There is also high tension on the gas front: as of this morning the Ukrainian natural gas network operator can no longer accept the transit of Russian gas through Sokhranivka for safety reasons, but for Gazprom it is impossible to transfer the flows to another point . For the moment, flows in Italy are managing to remain regular thanks to the diversification of sources.
T-bonds fell, revalued by investors in this phase of uncertainty as safe haven assets. The 10-year Treausury yield fell back to 2.9%, after yesterday spiking to a 3-and-a-half-year top to 3.2%. The spread between BTPs and German Bund counterparts opens at 201 points, slightly higher than the 200 at yesterday's closing. The yield of the 10-year Italian bond is 3.05%. Worth noting is the positive return of the 1-year Bot rate: first time since June 2020. In today's Treasury auction, the yield on the 12-month bond rose to 0.121% from -0.105% of the April placement. The maximum fixed amount of € 6.5 billion was awarded against a demand that exceeded € 9.73 billion.
ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke of inflation and rate hikes from Ljubljana, according to which the ECB's inflation estimates are increasingly moving in the direction of inflation anchored to the 2% target in the medium term. Lagarde added that the disinflationary trends of the past decade are increasingly unlikely to return. And then, as regards the Frankfurt agenda, he explained that his expectation is that "the net purchases should end at the beginning of the third quarter" and the first rate hike, "will take place sometime after the end of the purchases. We have not yet precisely defined the notion of some time later but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of a few weeks. "
Bitcoin returns to above $ 31,000, which yesterday, for the first time since July 2021, fell below $ 30,000.
The euro opens slightly below 1.06 dollars. On the currency markets, the greenback is holding close to its 20-year highs. The single currency changes hands for 1.0544 dollars and 137.44 yen. According to Amundi, the single currency is destined for parity with the dollar within six months: the head of investments of the French giant, Vincent Mortier, tells the Financial Times, according to which the priority of the ECB will continue to be to keep the sovereign yields, rather than fighting inflation. This will keep it unresponsive in monetary policy tightening relative to the Federal Reserve, with the effect of devaluing the single currency against the greenback.