Unless the circumstances change dramatically, the situation that the PP will find itself in after the Castilla y Leon elections will be very different from the one created in Calle Genova's Madrid offices and Maria de Molina's Valladolid offices. Although the electoral advance was planned in a national key to ensure that voters could either walk to the absolute majority or avoid it, it has turned out to be nothing less than an ordeal. All signs point to an epic victory, which could further weaken Pablo Casado's fragile leadership and disrupt the change of the electoral cycle that the opposition leader seeks to expel Pedro Sanchez from Moncloa.
Although the results of polls are known and those conducted by parties behind closed doors confirm victory for the PP, they are much less than expected. According to popular sources, they moved around 32 seats. This is nine seats less than the absolute majority of 41. It is only three seats more than in 2019. The initial days of the campaign were marked by a "let's get it all" attitude. Vox would be unnecessary if the 35 regional court attorneys were not available to represent the most optimistic. The polls reveal two troubling facts for the PP. It has lost six points in voter intention since the election was called. And the transfer of votes from the extreme right is greater than the Citizens' fishing grounds.
Alfonso Fernandez Manueco is a popular candidate. He has moved from thinking that governing alone was the only possibility to admitting that Vox must still be his belief. Isabel Diaz Ayuso previously broke this taboo. Santiago Abascal has a different perspective that Santiago Abascal is now requesting more. The leader of the extreme right, Santiago Abascal, says "We are going be decisive" and he has a dozen seats in his pocket.
The precedent set by the 2019 regional elections
Distribution of seats at the courts of Castilla y Leon
35PSOE
29PP
12 citizens
2U We Can
1Vox
1UPL
1By Avila
41
Absolute majority
81
Attorneys
Distribution of seats within the autonomous community
Cs
xAV
One
One
Avila
PP
PSOE
3
2
7
U.P.
Cs
One
2
Burgos
PSOE
PP
5
3
11th
UPL
U.P.
Cs
One
One
One
Lion
6
4
PP
PSOE
13
Cs
One
Palencia
3
3
PSOE
PP
7
Cs
2
PP
Salamanca
4
4
PSOE
10
Cs
One
Segovia
3
PSOE
PP
2
6
PP
2
3
PSOE
Soria
5
Cs
Vox
3
One
6
Valladolid
PSOE
PP
5
15
Cs
PSOE
One
Zamora
3
3
PP
7
a.s./N.C.
Source: Electoral Board, and my own elaboration
The precedent set by the 2019 regional elections
Distribution of seats at the courts of Castilla y Leon
By Avila 1
Vox 1
UPL 1
U. U.
Citizens 12
35
29
41
Absolute majority
81
Attorneys
Distribution of seats within the autonomous community
UPL
UP
Cs
Cs
One
One
One
One
3
6
UP
Cs
4
3
PSOE
PP
PP
PSOE
13
7
One
2
PSOE
PP
5
Lion
Palencia
3
11th
Burgos
Cs
Cs
PSOE
Vox
One
3
PP
3
PP
3
2
One
3
PSOE
7
6
PSOE
PP
5
5
15
Zamora
Cs
Soria
Valladolid
One
Cs
3
PSOE
PP
2
6
2
PP
4
Cs
Segovia
4
xAV
PSOE
10
One
One
PP
PSOE
3
Salamanca
2
7
Avila
a.s./N.C.
Source: Electoral Board, and my own elaboration
Casado had a plan to win Castilla y Leon before this plot twist. It was based on two pivots. To open a new electoral period, win with solvency. Andalusia should follow the municipal and regional elections in May 2023 to bring about general elections at the end next year in a climate that favors political change. The second leg is domestic, but not less important: it shows that Ayuso's victory in Madrid last year was not his only legacy. The PP could also repeat its triumphs elsewhere.
However, things have not gone according to plan. For the popular, the campaign has been endless. What should have ended in a handshake between Casado, Manueco and Manueco is now a path to pyrrhic gain. That's at least what the polls suggest.
The problem the PP is facing is a classic example of politics: managing expectations. Castilian-Leon's president brought forward elections to, he claimed, abort a motion for censure, of which no evidence has been presented. It was the Madrid model that worked with Ayuso. The triumphal route was designed by the high command at the PP, which, as can be seen, is not what it appears to be. It is possible to sell the skin of the bear's head before it is hunted in politics.
They are vocal in their opposition to the "gross errors" of the campaign and maintain some voices within party who criticize Casado’s hyperbolic speech – "Spain lives at the darkest hour," he said February 1, and a staging of questionable effects -The leader PP has created a gallery of photos of farmers with sheep, hams, cows, and pigs for the newspaper archives. It hasn't worked to put Pedro Sanchez at the centre of the target. Regional leaders of the party insist that "Castilla y Leon" is not Madrid.
The vote on the labor reform in Congress did not help either, as it has exhausted all the qualifications of the grotesque and was carried out due to an error by a deputy to the delight of socialists and the amazement of the popular.
It was a paradox that even the PP of Castilla y Leon used Ayuso to help them galvanize their campaign. They have now become four, despite the fact that he was not allowed to be there by the national direction. He has once again proven that the Madrid president's pull is greater than that of Casado among voters and militants. It's bad news for Genoa's plans.
The most "casadistas" begin to apply the bandage before they can actually heal the wound. If the Castilla y Leon operation does not go according to plan, they try to relieve their leader's responsibility. Manueco, the first: "I play it not Pablo Casado."
However, the debate seems inevitable. The PP critics, who are anonymous and keep an eye on weapons the next day. Cayetana de Toledo, her deputy, is emerging as the leader. On Monday, she will present "Politically Undesirable" in Pamplona.
At the end of the campaign, the socialist calm has effected a contrast to the turbulent waters that were suspected in popular domains. The PSOE is expecting a positive result. Although the most enthusiastic see the possibility that United We Can, Citizens can govern if it gets representation and single-provincial candidates, this scenario seems unlikely. They admit it in Ferraz Street and in the Castilian Leon PSOE, despite last-minute appeals to say that elections will be "in a few votes".
Although they are not certain that the Socialists will be able to repeat the 35 seats in 2019, they do not see any reason why it would be impossible. They see this scenario as more than acceptable in a community that has been resisting its candidates since 1983 (with the exception of Luis Tudanca’s victory three year ago). Sanchez, if his party's forecasts are met, will avoid the Madrid punishment vote. This result caused concern within the PSOE, fearing that it would become a national trend.
Luis Tudanca, PSOE
Pre-campaigning for regional elections in Castilla y Leon was started by the PSOE to avoid a repeat of the Madrid election defeat. They feared that Alfonso Fernandez Manueco's large majority would vote against Pedro Sanchez. The Socialists don't ring the bells and know that they have slim chances of repeating their 2019 results, but the polls show that their electoral prospects are not as bad as they thought. Luis Tudanca (his candidate) has offered a coalition government to United We Can, Citizens, and candidates from the Emptied Spain, if they are able to add.
A. Fernandez Manuel - PP
They prepared the electoral advance for Castilla y Leon using a national key to allow them to weaken the Government of Pedro Sanchez. This allowed Pablo Casado to be closer than Moncloa, and Alfonso Fernandez Manueco to become president of Castilla y Leon. The polls have dispelled the belief that these regional elections would be a military parade, in which Isabel Diaz Ayuso's majority would be reissued at Madrid. The data suggests that even though the victory of its candidate appears more likely than not, the PP must agree with Vox if they want to form a government. This is provided that the CIS does not reveal a larger surprise than the 23 percent who remain undecided.
Francisco Igea - CS
Ciudadanos' starting point is Castilla y Leon, one of the autonomous communities. These elections and those in Andalusia will determine the outcome of these elections. The future of the formation headed by Ines Arrimadas last year, who was evicted as part of the Executives of Murcia Madrid and Castilla y Leon, will also affect the results. It is only giving it one or two seats in the polls, which could leave the orange party without a clear winner. Fracisco Igea was also forced to take part in the first half of campaign in isolation at his parents house because he had a positive covid-19. He is now looking for a coalition that "the extremes will be excluded" in order to maintain, at minimum, some institutional power in the area and stop the flight from positions and affiliates.
Pablo Fernandez - United We Can
They can be trusted to face the Castilla y Leon elections with the new political project of Yolanda Diz, the second vice president. The "broad front" they envisioned leading is not possible and is unlikely to be there this Sunday. Due to labor reform negotiations and the rise in the SMI, the participation of the also Minister for Labor in the campaign was also very secretive. If they are able to join the PSOE, the goal is to save the furniture. The polls show that Pablo Fernandez is the purple candidate. He has between two and three prosecutors. This figure, while it could improve upon or match the 2019 one, may not be sufficient.
Juan Garcia-Gallardo - Vox
Vox in Castilla y Leon's institutional presence is discrete (it has only 64 of nearly 13,000 councilors) and performs better at national elections than it does in regional ones. In the May 2019 regional elections, it received 5.4% and in general elections five months later it got 16.8%. Santiago Abascal's supporters want to forcefully enter the Cortes de Castilla y Leon, just as they did in Andalusia or Madrid. He was unable to support the PP executives Juanma Moreno, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, and he is now determined to enter a Manueco government if they win the polls.
Angel Cena, Veronica Santos, Jose Ramon Gonzalez, Cristina Blanco, Nieves Trigueros
The Invasion of!Teruel Exists After the November 10th general election, Congress gave birth to 12 parties. They are present in four provinces (Burgos Palencia, Valladolid, Salamanca and Palencia) and in Soria (with Soria branding! Already). Even though the polls don't look very optimistic (they give two seats the Sorianos, and one to the Union of the Leonese People), they could still hold the key to the regional administration, to the right or left, due to the tightness of the polls, and doubts about participation. They are now facing a test that will determine their future electoral expectations. It will also depend on how they mobilize in rural and elderly areas.
