Stuck in the campaign, each party tries to increase its legion of voters in order not to need external support to form a government that manages, for the next four years, the affairs of the Andalusians. But, for now, according to the polls, access to the baton will inevitably happen by reaching agreements between parties.
The PP-A, as stated today by the Minister of the Presidency, Elías Bendodo, wants to leave the mathematical sum of seats parked for after the elections, although there is a rumor that the formation of the seagull could come to an understanding with Vox and his newly appointed candidate for the Board, Macarena Olona, in order to continue leading the Board.
For its part, the new confluence of leftists Por Andalucía, would consider consulting its militants if it would be convenient to add their votes to those obtained by the PSOE-A in order to form a government if necessary, as confirmed by the leader of the formation, Inmaculada Nieto, and unseat with this move to the right in the region. Likewise, she would maintain a "very serene reflection" on the possibility of abstaining from a hypothetical act of investiture of the popular leader Juanma Moreno if it were the result of the support of the ultra-nationalists.
“The confluence would never make it possible with your votes for me to be president”, answered the president of the Board, Moreno Bonilla, after Nieto's statements, something he has described as a “soap opera”. Likewise, he has adhered to the message given by Bendodo, insisting that he has "a winning team" with which to form a government alone. The idea of agreeing with Vox, a party that he has recognized will not make it easy for him, is one of the options that exists, although he prefers not to think about it during this campaign and focus on continuing to garner support among citizens to achieve " not depend on anyone”, as the counselor declared.
The popular do not eliminate any option from the deck, in fact, they have insisted that, during the legislature, the PP-A has shown its ability to dialogue and reach agreements with all the parties of the parliamentary arch, leaving the door ajar to a possible pact with Vox if the math fails.
Meanwhile, the man from Malaga and head of the poster has already begun his route through Andalusia appealing to the social democratic vote, the liberal vote and the "disenchanted" of the PSOE to join forces and achieve his goal, while giving an example of the future of Spain with "the worst government of history”, as he has commented on occasion, and which is being piloted by Pedro Sánchez. The fear of a "Frankenstein Government", the result of a possible pact between the lefts, is also being used by the right to mobilize the electorate, delving into the problems that Por Andalucía has faced even before the formation was born, which which, in his opinion, is one more example of the instability that they could offer from the Board. "Political parties have to be serious formations, governed by rigor, seriousness, planning, and not be a platform full of improvisation, as is the feeling that is being transmitted to Andalusian society as a whole", he said.
The confluence of the left, in its short life, has not stopped facing complications, problems and critical moments, although its candidate, Inmaculada Nieto, has wanted to reaffirm that all the forces of the bloc "will work together" despite all the ups and downs, for which he has once again asked for "forgiveness", they are launched in the race for the presidency. The formation was officially presented yesterday in order to promote a change of political sign in the region, where social policies mark the path of the road, not without facing criticism from insiders and outsiders.
Having overcome the first stones, in statements offered today, Nieto left the door ajar to join the PSOE-A to reach power. In that case, he has said, "we would remain at the disposal of whatever the militancy decides, but if it decides, as it decided for the Government of Spain, that we enter to govern, of course we would." In turn, he has indicated that the confluence would maintain "a calm reflection" on abstaining or not in a possible act of investiture of Moreno Bonilla backed by Vox.
The agreements and pacts between the six parties that attend the elections under the same ballot paper (IU, Equo, Más País Andalucía, the Andalusian People's Initiative and Podemos and the Green Alliance, which, although they do not appear in the registration, do join the project) have been harsh due to lack of understanding between IU and Podemos. One of the first frictions took place to designate the candidate for the presidency, a battle won by IU and that entailed a distribution of financial quota and greater representation for Podemos. But this situation was joined by a more serious one: in the registration of the party before the Electoral Board neither Podemos nor Alianza Verde appeared, which sparked the anger of the founder of the Morada formation at the national level, Pablo Iglesias, who "regretted" the bloc's way of proceeding and harshly questioned the "dedazos" in the absence of holding primaries.
Today, in addition, it has become known that 'Por Andalucía' is a trademark registered by a representative of the autonomous PP, which could generate some extra problem for the left-wing bloc.
The first test for the popular Feijóo
In this sense, regional policy is mixed halfway with national interests and is still the prelude to what can happen at the national level in the general elections. On the one hand, they are the first regional elections for the president of the PP, Núñez Feijóo, a litmus test with which to get a first reading of how citizens are receiving his way of doing politics with a more moderate mood than his predecessor, Pablo Married. The Galician, on the other hand, has personally opted for Moreno Bonilla and has formed his team with several Andalusian signings to give more and more weight to the regional bench. And, despite acknowledging his power to each autonomy, he would remain to know if he would give the go-ahead to a pact between Moreno and Olona (Vox).
Vox experiments in Andalusia
Those of Santiago Abascal, with their coup de force by naming the controversial and well-known deputy of Congress, Macarena Olona, want to test their strength in Andalusia and, with this, be able to get an idea of how the map of the nation would be made in the generals. This is the theory defended by Juan Marín, Cs candidate for the presidency and recognized enemy of the ultranationalists. “I am clear that they are going to use the Andalusians” as an “experiment field”, he has commented. Vox, which was key to enabling the popular to reach San Telmo in the previous legislature, went from being essential to an uncomfortable formation. So much so that, as the leader of the PP-A has commented, he has had a significant share of responsibility in that the elections have been called before his time expired after dropping the 2022 Budgets.
An exam for the Government of Sánchez
Another possibility would be that the collation of the central government would have a reflection in the region, resulting in an agreement between the left with parliamentary representation, that is, a pact between PSOE-A and the Por Andalucía bloc.
Pedro Sánchez, who will attend the campaign event in Torredelcampo (Jaén) next Saturday to support the Sevillian candidate Juan Espadas, will have the opportunity to verify whether or not his management is supported by the citizens, as well as test whether the population continues to punish his party in Andalusia, as happened in the previous elections, when the then leader, Susana Díaz, lost the government for the first time in 40 years.
The president of the national government then opted for Espadas in the midst of the conflict that arose with Díaz, although the polls of voting intentions do not seem to predict a good result for the former mayor of Seville. Corruption cases, such as that of the ERE, marked a before and after in the socialist vote of which, apparently, the initials have not yet been replaced.
First steps of the broad front of Díaz
However, there is the possibility that Andalusian socialism adds the necessary numbers with the new left-wing bloc Por Andalucía. Although the last poll predicted that the PP-A would garner more support than the sum of the support of both formations, it may be the case that this government option is planned. With this, the formula of the state government would be 'copied', which would go through an agreement between the PSOE and the broad front promoted by the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz. Although Nieto has insisted that the confluence has a marked Andalusian character and has tried to dissociate his party from Madrid, the truth is that Díaz has been key for the agreement between IU and Podemos to arrive, despite the ups and downs suffered by the election of the candidate and the subsequent setback in the registration before the Electoral Board (where Podemos and Alianza Verde were left out of the block).
It would constitute, therefore, the first test of this union of the left whose results could be extrapolated beyond the Andalusian limits. It will be after the regional elections when, as confirmed by the vice president, she turns to this project for the general elections.