The war is exacerbating the pre-existing adverse factors for the growth of the European economy, which in previous forecasts were expected to decrease, which is why the European Commission has decided to revise down the growth and inflation prospects in the EU due to the pressures bulls on commodity prices, further supply disruptions and increased uncertainty.
In the case of Spain, the Commission considers that it will continue to trail behind all recovery indicators and has lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 4%, 1.6 points less than it had calculated. Next year it is expected that the Spanish economy will also grow one point less than expected
so far and will reach 3.4%, which could allow us to recover the pre-pandemic level in the third quarter, well behind the other countries.
EU GDP is generally expected to remain in positive territory in the short term, thanks to the combined effect of post-lockdown reopenings and strong policy action in some countries to support growth during the pandemic. Brussels is also expected to see investment benefit from the full deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Fund and the implementation of the reform agenda that should accompany it.
In figures, the Commission's spring forecasts that have just been published foresee growth in both the EU and the euro area of 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, compared to the figures (4, 0% and 2.8) in winter. Inflation has been more persistent than expected, but the analysis detects a downward trend.