The listening by the CNI to leaders of the independence movement does not seem to be a sufficient reason, according to the majority of the citizens of Catalonia, for the Government to interrupt support for the Government of Pedro Sánchez nor the dialogue process, according to the survey that Ipsos has made for La Vanguardia. Of course, the clearly predominant opinion of the independence voter is that it is still necessary to assume political responsibilities. The Minister of Defense is pointed out directly, not so much the President of the Government (whom the majority of ERC voters continue to approve of).
The survey was carried out when Catalan society was already aware of the CNI listening to political and social leaders linked to the independence movement. This is an issue that could have rekindled the embers of the independence movement, taking into account that the vast majority of ERC, Junts and CUP voters consider that these wiretaps are not justified in any case, even if they have judicial authorization (by the way , more than half of the population of Catalonia thinks so, 53%). And yet, on this occasion, the intense feeling of grievance that characterized the relationship between the Government of Catalonia and the Government of Spain a few years ago and which, to a large extent, served for the independence forces to mobilize and add more support, does not seem have occurred. In fact, the estimate of the vote that Ipsos makes for the case of elections to the Parliament of Catalonia that will be held today, draws a significantly different scenario.
A good part of the independence movement is currently suffering from electoral hypotension, especially Junts voters. The pro-independence mental framework today is articulated around the management of public affairs and the commitment to dialogue with the central government, rather than voting. And, although it is true that in times of low, when there are no elections called, and also when the government is in charge, it is the opposition parties who are usually the most mobilized, the pro-independence formations are suffering significant wear and tear. They would retain the absolute majority, but only just. They would stay at the limit: 68 seats. It would be necessary to go back more than 20 years, to the 1999 elections, to see a similar result in block terms (CiU and ERC then added the same number of parliamentarians that ERC, Junts and the CUP would have today). In addition, the PSC would strengthen its position as the main parliamentary force.
These electoral realignments may be due to a change in trend among Catalan citizens. We will see if it consolidates or not. In any case, this pro-independence relaxation can perhaps be interpreted as one more symptom of the relaxation and normalization of the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. But we must not forget that Andalusia is going to start a new electoral cycle that will end with the general elections. The new political map that is formed after these elections can make us, like Einstein, wonder if the universe in which we live is rather friendly or hostile.