Technology: More and more manufacturers are getting out: do hybrids still have a future?

Many European countries show a uniform picture.

Technology: More and more manufacturers are getting out: do hybrids still have a future?

Many European countries show a uniform picture. When the high subsidies for hybrid models fell, sales plummeted. It made little difference whether they were serial hybrids or the more popular plug-in hybrid models, with which significant distances can be covered purely electrically. Such a case is also threatening in Germany in the coming year, because up to now there is still a discount of up to 6,750 euros for such a plug-in hybrid, which the state and car manufacturers share. From the beginning of January 2023, however, this should be over. While the discounts on vehicles with a purely electric drive are reduced by around 2,000 euros from 9,000 euros, there are probably no longer any purchase premiums for a plug-in hybrid. This would put plug-in hybrids on an equal footing with normal hybrids, despite the electric ranges of up to 100 kilometers or more in some cases.

The plug-in hybrids were not really popular with most car manufacturers anyway. Two very different engines, a lot of weight and high costs - it was supposed to be a bridging technology until vehicles with purely electric drives were ready. There were a few exceptions, for example Toyota, currently the world's largest car manufacturer, celebrated great success with its hybrid drive in Asia and parts of the USA. But the more electric cars came onto the market, the less interest in a bestseller like the Toyota Prius, which is no longer offered in many markets. Nevertheless, Toyota is not only sticking with its core brand, but also with the noble offshoot Lexus on the hybrid drive with and without a plug. The situation is similar at Honda, which even sends small vehicles with hybrid technology to customers. Toyota has now sold 17 million hybrid vehicles. The Japanese are slowly getting a taste for electronics. “Of course we have to work hard to improve battery capacity and reduce the cost of electric vehicles, which we are doing. Until the hurdles related to electric cars and fuel cell vehicles are overcome, our work on hybrid models makes an important contribution,” says Shigeki Terashi, Chief Officer of Toyota Motor Corporation.

For the brands from Europe, the hybrid versions have mostly played a supporting role for years. The interlude of hybrids without a plug-in function was shorter than ever anyway. And in Europe, the plug-in hybrids have only had a chance for years because they were highly subsidized and promised cheap consumption on paper. It doesn't matter whether the driver plugs in his PHEV at home or at a charging station or leaves the charging cable unused in the trunk. But the stately purchase premiums ensured that models such as the Ford Kuga, VW Passat, BMW 3 Series or a Mercedes C-Class achieved significant sales success. But these are now on the verge of extinction.

Another problem is the embellished standard consumption. Since the tests are carried out with a fully charged battery pack, the plug-in hybrids often tempt with consumption that, according to the official WLTP mode, is little more than one liter per 100 kilometers, despite their impressive curb weight and ample engine performance. Studies by the Fraunhofer Institute have shown, however, that the supposedly favorable consumption of plug-in hybrids often does not correspond to reality and is three to five times higher than the official WLTP values. Real-world fuel consumption of PHEVs in Europe averaged 4.0 to 4.4 liters/100 km for private vehicles and 7.6 to 8.4 liters/100 km for company cars, compared to 1.6 and 1.7 liters/km, respectively 100 km for WLTP type approval.

By the end of August 2022, 44.6 percent of all new German passenger car registrations were equipped with alternative drives. More than a quarter (25.3 percent / 9.1 percent) were new vehicles with an electric drive (electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell). New registrations of purely electric vehicles accounted for 13.9 percent in the first eight months of the year, an increase of 24.1 percent. The brief boom in plug-in hybrids is likely to be over soon, because the electric wave is picking up speed faster than many expected. The hybrids will therefore probably not have a great future in the medium to long term. At least the European volume manufacturers have long since said goodbye and hybrids with and without a plug don't seem to have a great future in North America either.

On the one hand, this is due to the huge investments that have to be made in electromobility. Many can no longer afford to drive on two tracks. In addition, a number of manufacturers have loudly announced that they will become electric brands in the next ten years. It's no surprise that new hybrids such as the Opel Astra GSe, Range Rover P 510e or Renault Austral Hybrid will probably only have a manageable lifespan in the product portfolio. It hardly matters that some battery packs with capacities of 30 or more kilowatt hours have become so large and expensive that they could also have been used in a smaller electric car. It remains to be seen how it will be with new models that have just been presented with plug-in modules. BMW recently presented its new luxury SUV XM as a hybrid model with up to 750 hp, but the new seven-seater BMW is not only offered as an electric i7, as well as a diesel and petrol engine with and without a plug. The situation is similar with competitor Mercedes. The recently presented Mercedes GLC relies on plug-in hybrids, as does the new E-Class, which will celebrate its premiere next spring. In the future, however, the models with the combination of combustion engine and electric motor are likely to gradually become obsolete.

NEXT NEWS