According to a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Insa for “Bild am Sonntag”, the Union remains the strongest force. In the so-called “Sunday trend”, the CDU and CSU reach 30 percent, as in the previous week. The second strongest force is the AfD, which at 20 percent maintains its value compared to a survey the previous week. The values of the traffic light coalition also remain unchanged: According to the survey, the Social Democrats have 15 percent of the vote, the Greens have 13 percent and the FDP would narrowly miss out on entering the Bundestag with 4 percent. With 3 percent (-1), the Left would not get into the Bundestag either. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) ends up at 7 percent.
When asked which coalitions would be good after the next federal election, 36 percent said an alliance between the Union and the SPD. 26 percent supported a so-called Germany coalition made up of the Union, SPD and FDP. According to the information, black and green achieved 21 percent approval. 15 percent would like a new edition of the currently ruling traffic light coalition.
54 percent of Union voters against black-green
Among the survey participants who said they were Union voters, 34 percent of respondents thought black-green was good, while 54 percent thought it was bad. 38 percent said that the Union should rule out an alliance with the Greens at the federal level before the federal election.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz wrote about the Union's future coalition options in an email to supporters last weekend. He explicitly named the SPD and the Greens as possible partners if an alliance with the FDP was not enough. “Not a particularly tempting prospect, but there must be a majority capable of governing,” he wrote. There has already been strong resistance to the possibility of a black-green alliance from the CSU, but also from the Young Union's young members.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.