Five statistical nuances on the Madrid elections

Analyzing Ayuso’s victory in Monday’s elections reveals that the new power and influence of the PP is not tied to old cliches like places with low incomes voting for left.

Five statistical nuances on the Madrid elections

Analyzing Ayuso’s victory in Monday’s elections reveals that the new power and influence of the PP is not tied to old cliches like places with low incomes voting for left. For example, the municipalities with the highest unemployment or lower incomes have joined the popular wave. A detailed analysis of the electoral results reveals that More Madrid's surprise to the PSOE was a highly 'capitalist effect. The formation of Pedro Sanchez in large municipalities continues to be the dominant leftist force.

Pablo Iglesias (candidate for United We Can), announced that he would be leaving politics as one of the major consequences of the electoral evening. His formation was moved to fifth place because the ten deputies he received were not enough to eliminate the right wing of the community. Are the Podemos results a failure? Although Isabel Diaz Ayuso was not withdrawn, it is true that the purples achieved better results and brought along three more deputies.

Pablo Iglesias announces he is resigning from politics

In around 30 Madrid municipalities, United We Can saw a decrease in votes than in 2019. This handful of Madrid towns has interesting demography. These thirty towns have a 24% average unemployment rate, almost twice that of the entire community. With an average age of around 40 years, the average disposable income in these towns is approximately 7,000 euros lower than the regional average. The region's average percentage of people with medium education is 5 points lower than the rest.

It is notable that the surprise occurred in Madrid, the true epicenter of the Socialists' collapse, during the battle between Mas Madrid (left) and the PSOE (right). The acronyms Angel Gabilondo used to refer to the following municipalities are still dominant in terms of their population. The Socialists lost 12.12% votes in Mostoles. However, they beat Monica Garcia's formation, which received 5,730 more votes and increased her representation by 3.3%. Leganes is the third largest population, ranking in decreasing order of residents. The PSOE still has more votes than Mas Madrid, with 207.095 citizens.

The sorpaso is not held in the larger towns around Madrid such as Alcobendas and Las Rozas. Rivas-Vacia Madrid was the only place where Inigo Errejon's party prevailed over Angel Gabilondo. It is home to 85,893 people. Mas Madrid won 4.07%, while the latter lost 12.47% of votes. the vote total to 25.15%.

Both in towns with high incomes and those where the average income is at the bottom of the Community of Madrid's list, the victory of the PP was total. Pozuelo has a 58,000 euro average disposable income and is the municipality with the highest income. Vox falls 1.2% and the PP in this town rises 25%. Socialist presence falls by 10.34, and Ciudadanos is down 20%. Although the left gains some ground, it is only by a small percentage. More Madrid receives 1,031 votes more, 8.64%; UP gets 364 votes, 2.55%.

Boadilla del Monte is a popular territory with an average income 46,386 euros. However, the rise in this match has been spectacular. The PP received 11,607 more votes than the previous elections. This is an increase of 27.72%. It is odd that Ciudadanos lost 5,954 votes (22.65%). Vox saw a minimum growth rate of 0.3% and 797 new votes. The PSOE falls 6.73% as Madrid rises by 1.29%. UP gains a slight increase in 4.75% but only 924 votes.

Alcobendas is third in terms of income with 45,580 euro. The most voted list has been changed. The PSOE won the election. It has now lost 10.68%. The PP has won with 30,588 votes and 49.6% of votes. Ciudadanos was defeated by 8,800 votes in this area. The formations continue to rise. Vox, 0.01% UP 0.93, Mas Madrid 2.24

Celebrate in Genoa

Popular victory is also possible in the towns with the lowest incomes, which range from 1,000 to 2,000 inhabitants. With a income of 16,313 euro, Cinderellas is a place where the PP won 42.4%. The PSOE, the list that received the most votes during the previous elections, lost 21% and became the second largest force. Vox is third with 10.33% and Mas Madrid is fourth with 9.67%. UP wins 5.95% - 2.61 - while Ciudadanos receives 14 votes, 1.16%. The PP gets 44.46% (16.1%) more votes in Villaconejos. This is the second lowest-income population at -17,167 euro. With 18.42% of votes, the PSOE is still the second largest force with a loss of 12.77 percent. Vox with 16.57% and Mas Madrid with 10.19% rose, while Podemos lost 2.28 votes and Ciudadanos 12,09 in comparison to the previous elections.

Even in towns with high unemployment rates, the PP won. With 39.79%, the PP wins Valdaracete. This small town is located east of Madrid, with a 48.46% unemployment rate and an average income 20.374 euros. On the other hand, Socialists fell by 10.91. UP and Mas Madrid saw their respective increases of 4.19%, 7.33% and 7.33%. El Vellon was the second in terms of unemployment. It had 47.42% of people without work and an income of 19,797 euro. The PP grew 19.3% and won 46.8% of votes. The PP has seen a 3.43 percent increase in Pozuelo De Alarcon, which is the most preferred area.

Tres Cantos has 4.88% unemployment, which is the next closest locality with lower unemployment. The PP receives 45.29% votes, compared to 17.77% for the Socialists.

Some results from Madrid also have entered the 'rankings' of political party history. In this sense, Ayuso's win is unprecedented in terms the number of votes received in comparison to other figures in which PP also won. The 1,620,213 votes that were collected by Ayuso surpass all data from the formation Pablo Casado directs in certain regional elections. Esperanza's wins in 2007 and 2011 were based on 1,592,162 and 1,548,306 votes respectively. We must look back at the 2008 general election to find figures higher than those achieved by Ayuso. These elections saw Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero being reelected as Prime Minister. They were also held in an atmosphere of maximum polarization. Mariano Rajoy was the PP candidate. He received 1,737,688 votes in Madrid, which is more than the mayor. However, the context was quite different.

It is difficult to find a lower number than the one obtained by the socialist party (610,190 votes), if you exclude the results from the European elections, where participation is always lower. His party suffered a greater blow than Angel Gabilondo's in 2015 local elections in which 577,564 votes were won by the Socialists in all Madrid constituencies. Antonio Miguel Carmona was the candidate for mayor in Madrid.

Concerning Podemos' situation, its data (261,010 votes) are not the lowest in its historical history. In fact, it received 128,664 votes in the entire community in 2019. They were still far away from the 756,257 votes that it received in the 2015 general election, which was its best result in all of history. There are no nuances with Ciudadanos. Monday's 129,216 votes was the lowest ever recorded in its history. Two years ago, Albert Rivera dreamed to take the PP by surprise and his best result was in the generals. He beat the PP in Madrid that year with 792,2003 votes, compared to Pablo Casado's 705,119 in the community. The tables have changed in two years.

Sources: Tax Agency (INE), SEPE