Opinion polls predict a close race between two former heads of government: Boyko Borissov's conservative Gerb party is neck and neck with Kiril Petkov's pro-Western reform party PP. According to the surveys, both come to about 25 percent.

Given this forecast result, there is little hope that stability will settle in the poorest member state of the EU after the election.

In 2020, months of anti-corruption protests rocked the government of then Prime Minister Borisov, who ruled Bulgaria for almost a decade and was voted out in 2021. Since then, all elections have resulted in fragmented parliaments, with neither party able to form a functioning government.

The already fragile political climate in Bulgaria became even more explosive with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although Bulgaria is a member of the EU and NATO, many people continue to feel close ties to Russia historically and culturally. Among other things, Russia is revered as the country that ended the Ottoman Empire's rule over Bulgaria in 1878.