Castile and Leon would not be ruled by the sum of PP/Vox

In the CIS poll, PSOE and PP were tied for the Castilla y Leon elections on February 13.

Castile and Leon would not be ruled by the sum of PP/Vox

In the CIS poll, PSOE and PP were tied for the Castilla y Leon elections on February 13. This is a remarkable scenario, but it is even more astonishing that Vox and PP are tied in the CIS poll for the elections in Castilla y Leon on February 13.

According to the CIS preelection poll, Socialists have an estimated vote of 30%. This would mean that there are between 25 and 34 attorneys in Cortes of Castilla y Leon. The most popular ones remain one point lower and their loot ranges from 27 to 32 seat.

Burgos Leon, Segovia, Valladolid and Segovia are the most likely electoral areas for the PSOE, while Palencia, Salamanca and Segovia would be home to the PP. With an estimated 42.3% vote, Soria's candidacy will sweep his constituency.

Vox would be the third force in these regional election, with an estimated vote at 9.3% and between four to eight regional deputies. United We Can remains at 8.7% with between three to five representatives. Ciudadanos drops to 7.9%, with two to five seats.

Union del Pueblo Leones, and Soria Ya are two uniprovincial groups. They have between two and three prosecutors and they do better in the CIS Barometer. Avila, a split from PP, remains in one. Via Burgalesa and Zamora determine that the rest of them do not have representation in Cortes de Castilla y Leon.

As is the case with many national surveys, the CIS survey goes against the tides of private company surveys, which almost always predict a comfortable victory of the PP at the brink of absolute majority. Vox supports them easily in achieving this bar. This trend was broken by the official demographic institute in its thorough study of 7,131 interviews. It was conducted between January 7th and 22. The interview was done in the midst controversy surrounding Minister Alberto Garzon's statements about macro-farms, their inferior products, and the extensive study. quality.

Socialists get good results from the CIS because of the solid loyalty of their voters. The CIS expects that 62.3% will vote again in 2019. The PSOE was the first party to vote in those elections. However, it couldn't govern because of the agreement between the PP (and Ciudadanos) to invest Fernandez Manueco.

The PP has a strong voter base with 62% of them returning to vote again, but it also registers a flight by 9.7% of its supporters towards Vox. The extreme right party has the most loyal parish with 64.4% voting again for Santiago Abascal. However, it also registers a transfer to the PP of 11.3%.

Ciudadanos is the crash of all crashes. This time, only one fifth of his 2019 voters will do it again. Vox is at 5.5% and 16.6% respectively. United We Can keep a stable position, with a vote loyalty of 55.7% and a transfer of 11.8% to the PSOE.